Indonesia Corona Virus Update #11 May 11, 2020
Number of reported cases: 14,265 (as of May 11) 991 Deaths 2,881 Recoveries
- Under-reporting: Discrepancies in official data continue to suggest under-reporting of COVID-19 cases and deaths. For example, Jakarta burial figures (including those utilizing COVID-19 protocols) for March and April exceeded official deaths by 2,000. Although the burial figures are not aggregated daily they point to a flattening of the curve. The data may represent only those seeking medical attention.
- Pandemic “simmering: If official deaths are off by a factor of 5, many trends point to Indonesia’s COVID-19 transmission rate far less than other countries. Its death rate would put it in the lower tier of countries. The evidence:
- Active cases (net of recoveries and deaths) grew at a slower rate 16% this week compared to the previous week (19%).
- Bekasi test <1%: This municipality west of Jakarta randomly tested 650 people with a molecular COVID-19 test. Only 4 registered positive representing a 0.62% infection rate. On a national scale testing remains limited (5,000 per day) as labs are hampered by staff shortages.
- Bali: Given the island’s status as a tourist haven for Chinese travelers, there were 5 non-stop a week from Wuhan, Bali should have been a COVID-19 epicenter. Yet, only 4 deaths in Bali have been attributed to the virus.
- Business Travel Now Allowed: Although air and rail passenger passage remains prohibited until after the end of Ramadan, essential business travel is now allowed. Garuda Airlines is the only airline and
- Q1 Growth 2.97%: Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020 only grew 2.97 percent compared to the same period the previous year. Slowdown mostly due to contraction of household consumption. This is the slowest rate in 19 years.